538 Redistricting

In recent times, 538 redistricting has become increasingly relevant in various contexts. united states - What are the differences between these groups polled by .... Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that "LV" is a proper subset of "RV&quo... In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States .... Similarly, in 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point".

What is the difference between these two categories? Correlation between 538's urbanization index and vote margin 2020?. It's important to note that, using 538's urbanization index from the linked article - which appears to have been calculated in 2019, as well as the preliminary results at time of writing according to Dave Leip's Election Atlas, we can investigate this. As in 2016, we find a fairly strong positive correlation between FiveThirtyEight's urbanization index and the two-party vote share in the state.

The correlation coefficient ... This perspective suggests that, united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and .... 538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data. Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average. Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to ....

In comparison to the 538 model, the economist model uses less "fat tails". 538 uses a t-distribution to account for "black swan" events: things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls. united states - Why were there only 531 electoral votes in the US .... I just read this Wikipedia article. It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes.

Building on this, that's 304 + 227 = 531 votes. But the total number should be 538. Where did the 7 votes go? Another key aspect involves, what determines the number of electors in each state of the US. 7 Mostly the (Decennial) Census Generally, the electoral formula is Electoral Votes = Representatives + Senators.

Each state has two Senators, so that's 100 of the 538 total Electoral Votes. Washington DC gets three electors; while they technically have shadow congresspeople, those don't get to vote in the House or Senate. united states - What explanations can be offered for the extreme see .... This was actually one of the reasons that 538 originally started combining multiple polls into weighted aggregates: to increase the overall reliability. The fact that even 538 seems to no longer be doing their aggregates for Senate races, and is now even burying the margin of error/quality information 3 to 5 clicks deep is sad indeed. Building on this, is there a correlation between a President's approval rating on ....

I was looking 538's historical approval ratings and I noticed that on the last day of a two-term president's last term, the approval rating was about twice the popular vote margin nationwide.